DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS IN EAST JAVA: BLESSING OR DISASTER?
Abstract
Demographic bonus is a phenomenon that occurs in every developing country including Indonesia. In Indonesia this phenomenon could be backfire if the
government can not exploit this phenomenon with the right policy. The United Nations states that demographic bonuses in Indonesia will peak in the period of 2020-2030. This paper shows the effect of demographic bonus on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) by using panel data. The regency/municipality being the sample in this research is Surabaya. Banyuwangi, Tuban, Probolinggo, Blitar, Lamongan with vulnerable time from 2010-2015. The method used in this research is by using Panel Error Correction (PEC), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The results of this study indicate that in the short and long run demographic bonus have a significant effect on East Java GRDP. Furthemore, the policy on demographic bonus is not optimal in supporting the increase of East Java GRDP. Finally, calculations using ARIMA indicate a decrease in GRDP in the next few years.
References
2015
Abrigo, Michael R. M.; Racelis. Rachel H.; Salas, J. M. Ian; Nerrin, Alejandro N. “Decomposing Economic Gains from Population Age Structure Transition in The Philippines”, The Journal of The Economics of Ageing, 2016
_. Analisis Bonus Demografi Sebagai Kesempatan Memacu Percepatan Industri di Indonesia. Departemen Kajian dan Aksi Strategis BEM FE UI 2015
Arif. G. M. dan Chaudhry, Nusrat, “Demographic Transition and Youth Employment in Pakistan”, The Pakistan Development Review, 2008
Arianto, Bismar, “Optimalisasi Dana Desa: Upaya Alternatif Menyongsong Bonus Demografi Indonesia 2020-2030”, Bandar Lampung, 2016
Astuti, Hesti Widi dan Soetarmiyati, Nani, “Mengukur Peluang dan Ancaman Bonus Demografi terhadap Kualitas Sumberdaya Manusia dalam Pembangunan
Ekonomi di Bandar Lampung”, Jurnal Bisnis Darmajaya, 2016, Vol 2 No 01
Bjorvatn, Kjetil dan Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, “Demographic Transition in Resource Rich Countries: A Blessing or A Curse?”, World Development, 2013,
Vol 45, hal. 337-351
Bloom, David; David Canning and Jaypee Sevilla, “The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change”, Santa
Monica: RAND, 2003
Gujarati, Damodar N. dan Porter, Dawn C, (2009), Basic Econometrics Fifth Edition, New York:The McGraw-Hill Companies
Heryanah, “Ageing Population dan Bonus Demografi Kedua di Indonesia”, Journal of Population Research, 2015, Vol 23 No 2, hal. 1-16
Islam, M. Mazharul, “Demographic Transition and The Emerging Windows of Opportunities and Challenges in Bangladesh”, Journal of Population Research,
2016
James, K. S, “India’s Demographic Change: Opportunities and Challenges”, Science, 2011, Vol 333
Jati, Wasisto Raharjo. “Bonus Demografi Sebagai Mesin Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Jendela Peluang atau Jendela Bencana di Indonesia?”, Peneliti Lembaga Ilmu
Pengetahuan Indonesia (LIPI), 2015, Vol 23 No 1, hal. 1-19
Jouida, Sameh, “Diversification, Capital Structure and Profitability: A Panel VAR Approach”, Research in International Business and Finance, 2017
Kitao, Sagiri, “Fiscal Cost of Demographic Transition in Japan”. Journal ef Economic Dynamics & Control, 2015, hal. 37-58
Konadi, Win dan Iba , Zainuddin. “Bonus Demografi Modal Membangun Bangsa yang Sehat dan Bermartabat”, Majalah Ilmiah Unimus, Vol 2 No 6, 2011, hal. 18-23
Li, Ked an Lin, Boqiang, “Impact of Energy Technology Patens in China: Evidence from a Panel Cointegration and Error Correction Model”, Energy Policy No 89, 2016, hal. 214-223
Maryati, Sri, “Dinamika Pengangguran Terdidik: Tantangan Menuju Bonus Demografi di Indonesia”, Journal of Economic and Economic Education, 2015, Vol 3 No 2, hal. 124-136
Omay, Tolga; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan, dan Denaux, Zulals, “Nonlinear Error Correction Based Cointegration Test in Panel Data”, Economic Letters, 2017,
No 157, hal. 1-4
Peng, Xizhe, “China’s Demographic History and Future Challenges”, Science, 2011, Vol 333
Shank, Corey A. dan Vianna, Andre C, “Are US-Dollar-Hegded-ETF Investors Aggressive on Exchange Rate? A Panel VAR Approach”, Research in
International Business and Finance, 2016, Vol 38, hal. 430-438
Srihadi, Endang. 2012. Bonus Demografi: Jendela Kesempatan atau Jendela Bencana. Accesed October 1, 2017 from theindonesianinstitute.com /Bonus Demografi Jendela Kesempatan atau Jendela Bencana.htm
Umar, Muhammad Agus, “Bonus Demografi sebagai Peluang dan Tantangan Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Alam di Era Otonomi daerah”. Genta Mulia, 2017,
Vol 8 No 2, hal. 90-99
